bill_schubert

The economy, [well.. you know]

I've been thinking this for a while and saying it to no one around me that the economy is on a huge rubberband and while things may be slow now what is really happening is a reconfiguration and a huge pent up demand building.  Over the next year we're going to be building up the energy of a slingshot and when Biden takes over in January the wheel is going to be spinning faster and faster. 

Two data points are all I really need to say the above.

1 — The stock market is always a predictor and, this week aside, they have chosen.  They are seeing what I'm seeing, the pandemic is something requiring an adjustment, a new way of doing things, an opportunity to invent better, more efficient processes.  It is tragic for a lot of people but like any war it will advance medicine and innovation.  Without wars we would not have amputees running faster than full legged people and without the pandemic we would not have the raft of new epidemiologists and chemists and virologists now joining the pipeline at just the time we'll need them to counter the effects of global warming.

That's the big picture.

2 — I was at the grocery store today and it was packed.  It will be even more packed tomorrow.  For the first time since February I heard a clerk complaining about having to work so hard (she did it in a nice way but it was... man, tomorrow is going to be tough).  Everyone was wearing masks and was polite and the shelves were mostly full but for a few items I wanted (Chinese imports of noodles haven't caught up yet).  Packed.  People spending money.  A lot of it.  People buying for a Labor Day cookout.  Just like last Labor Day but with masks.  That money will result in more money flowing out of the HEB chain to buy more food for their shelves and we're going to be filling the pipeline and people will be back to work.

2a — Anyone notice that Jeff Bezos company is growing faster now than ever before?  And Walmart is going to great lengths to catch up.  Spending a lot of money to grow a new segment.

2b — I'm starting a minor gig consulting with Peloton, the online cycling company, and so I've been watching their news some.  They are going crazy right now too.  New Tread (treadmill), new bike, new systems.  Big investment.  Who'd thought that people might want to work out at home rather than go to a gym?  Well, they did.  Right place, right time.  And they have a lot of competition.

My prediction is that the Biden economy will be the behemoth that we've gotten used to with Democratic administrations.  He'll get credit but it is just human nature, the process of pent up demand, and a huge rubber band.

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